Comments on: A Peak-Oiler, but still in the closet? IEA’s 2008 Report http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/ Energy Action for a Healthy Economy and Clean Environment Wed, 10 Mar 2010 06:40:02 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Andrew Francis http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-88 Andrew Francis Fri, 12 Dec 2008 07:41:30 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-88 Peak oil gets a lot of attention, but the basic model of withdrawing resources at unsustainable rates is being repeated across the spectrum of human activity. Consider, for example, the rate at which we are removing ground water from acquifers from South America to China to Australia. Like oil, this is water that has been in place for eons yet we remove it at accelerating, unsustainable rates for our short-term and wasteful needs. Consider the rate at which we are removing all types of fish, up and down the food chain, from all parts of the ocean. On the face of it, fish are renewable, yet in our skill and desire to take more and more, fish are a finite resource. North Atlantic cod are the best-documented example - 15 years after the last commercial catch of cod, there has been no recovery of stocks. Compared to the many areas where we are behaving badly, oil has endless amounts of attention and analysis showered on it and the IEA report is welcome; but come on guys, lift your heads up and look at the bigger picture. It is human behaviour that we need to study and find ways to change before we and our children pay the price. Peak oil gets a lot of attention, but the basic model of withdrawing resources at unsustainable rates is being repeated across the spectrum of human activity. Consider, for example, the rate at which we are removing ground water from acquifers from South America to China to Australia. Like oil, this is water that has been in place for eons yet we remove it at accelerating, unsustainable rates for our short-term and wasteful needs. Consider the rate at which we are removing all types of fish, up and down the food chain, from all parts of the ocean. On the face of it, fish are renewable, yet in our skill and desire to take more and more, fish are a finite resource. North Atlantic cod are the best-documented example - 15 years after the last commercial catch of cod, there has been no recovery of stocks.
Compared to the many areas where we are behaving badly, oil has endless amounts of attention and analysis showered on it and the IEA report is welcome; but come on guys, lift your heads up and look at the bigger picture. It is human behaviour that we need to study and find ways to change before we and our children pay the price.

]]> By: Ray Hurrell - Ireland http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-10 Ray Hurrell - Ireland Wed, 19 Nov 2008 18:18:25 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-10 Thank you to Mr Simmons for a concise dissection of the IEA report. Personally, I had been anticipating this report for some time, but was unsurprised by the almost schizophrenic nature of their output. I think the IEA is caught between its political masters, its previous rosey assertions, and a realisation that peak oil will soon be a reality. I think Mr Simmons and others are right, the IEA is shuffling to one side trying to distance itself in a step by step manner from the notion that there are no oil supply problems. In a few short years from now, when the 'necessary' monumental investments in imaginary fields are not forthcoming and when OPEC production starts on its clear and unequivocable downward path, the IEA will wash their hands of their 2008 output, saying their predictions were dependant on certain factors. I'm afraid that at this stage I am simply watching the disaster unfold. I have no faith that any meaningful action will be taken to prevent it happening. We are a greedy, consumptive and destructive species and our political systems are incapable of dealing with issues such peak oil or global warming. Our democracies evolved out of and were built on a premise and in an environment of comparative wealth and I believe they will collapse in an environment of scarcity - with all the consequences that such scarcity brings. The IEA report is not a step in the right direction or the wrong direction, it's just a step sideways... a little like Pontius Pilate washing his hands. Thank you to Mr Simmons for a concise dissection of the IEA report. Personally, I had been anticipating this report for some time, but was unsurprised by the almost schizophrenic nature of their output. I think the IEA is caught between its political masters, its previous rosey assertions, and a realisation that peak oil will soon be a reality. I think Mr Simmons and others are right, the IEA is shuffling to one side trying to distance itself in a step by step manner from the notion that there are no oil supply problems.
In a few short years from now, when the ‘necessary’ monumental investments in imaginary fields are not forthcoming and when OPEC production starts on its clear and unequivocable downward path, the IEA will wash their hands of their 2008 output, saying their predictions were dependant on certain factors.
I’m afraid that at this stage I am simply watching the disaster unfold. I have no faith that any meaningful action will be taken to prevent it happening. We are a greedy, consumptive and destructive species and our political systems are incapable of dealing with issues such peak oil or global warming. Our democracies evolved out of and were built on a premise and in an environment of comparative wealth and I believe they will collapse in an environment of scarcity - with all the consequences that such scarcity brings.
The IEA report is not a step in the right direction or the wrong direction, it’s just a step sideways… a little like Pontius Pilate washing his hands.

]]> By: Peter Weggeman http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-9 Peter Weggeman Wed, 19 Nov 2008 17:55:22 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-9 I am happy to see efforts to quantify depletion rates getting so sophisticated. I now find myself using half-life, as in nuclear decay, to get a sense of 'volume decay'. A 5% depletion rate gives a half-life of 13 years. If you start with 90 mb/d, in 13 years it will be 45 mb/d. That's damned fast! In another 13 years it will be 23 mb/d, etc. Volumes extracted become less each year and theoretically never reach zero. A depleted field is one that can no longer yield commercial quantities at acceptable prices. Enjoyed excellent summary of the IEA report. I am happy to see efforts to quantify depletion rates getting so sophisticated. I now find myself using half-life, as in nuclear decay, to get a sense of ‘volume decay’. A 5% depletion rate gives a half-life of 13 years. If you start with 90 mb/d, in 13 years it will be 45 mb/d. That’s damned fast! In another 13 years it will be 23 mb/d, etc. Volumes extracted become less each year and theoretically never reach zero. A depleted field is one that can no longer yield commercial quantities at acceptable prices.
Enjoyed excellent summary of the IEA report.

]]> By: Humble Money » Blog Archive » links for 2008-11-18 http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-8 Humble Money » Blog Archive » links for 2008-11-18 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 04:32:35 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-8 [...] A Peak-Oiler, but still in the closet? IEA’s 2008 Report :: ASPO-USA This 9% depletion rate is like a tsunami building on the horizon that nobody is talking about because they are too busy trying to douse the flames of their house fire. [...] [...] A Peak-Oiler, but still in the closet? IEA’s 2008 Report :: ASPO-USA This 9% depletion rate is like a tsunami building on the horizon that nobody is talking about because they are too busy trying to douse the flames of their house fire. [...]

]]> By: Robert E. Davenport http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-7 Robert E. Davenport Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:32:20 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-7 A factor not discussed but worthy of consideration is that individual wells in an oilfield of any size have great differences in capacity to produce. This, as the result of local reservoir conditions or the completion techniques used, may result in rapid field rate declines as the best wells become effected by water influx or a drop in reservoir pressure. In smaller fields, the loss of one big producer results in an abrupt loss of field capacity. Another consideration not covered by this article is that the total capacity to produce by any oilfield is a function of the amount of investment made in the numbers of wells, downhole and wellhead equipment, gathering stations, pipelines and terminals. The number and sizing of all these components determine the rate ranges at which fields can produce and consequentionally, their later depletion rates. In areas of high political unrest the decision on the target production rate is controlled by security and profitability. The fields of Saudi Arabia could be produced at much higher rates if the decision was made to expand the producing wells and facilities. Current Saudi rates are thus arbitary, not fixed. A factor not discussed but worthy of consideration is that individual wells in an oilfield of any size have great differences in capacity to produce. This, as the result of local reservoir conditions or the completion techniques used, may result in rapid field rate declines as the best wells become effected by water influx or a drop in reservoir pressure. In smaller fields, the loss of one big producer results in an abrupt loss of field capacity.
Another consideration not covered by this article is that the total capacity to produce by any oilfield is a function of the amount of investment made in the numbers of wells, downhole and wellhead equipment, gathering stations, pipelines and terminals. The number and sizing of all these components determine the rate ranges at which fields can produce and consequentionally, their later depletion rates. In areas of high political unrest the decision on the target production rate is controlled by security and profitability. The fields of Saudi Arabia could be produced at much higher rates if the decision was made to expand the producing wells and facilities. Current Saudi rates are thus arbitary, not fixed.

]]> By: Commodities Broker | DrumBeat: November 17, 2008 | Commodities Options | Commodities Futures | Commodities Prices http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-6 Commodities Broker | DrumBeat: November 17, 2008 | Commodities Options | Commodities Futures | Commodities Prices Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:52:48 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-6 [...] A Peak-Oiler, but still in the closet? IEA’s 2008 Report The groundbreaking new IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 is still a product of a somewhat schizophrenic organization. Here and there you still have references to how abundant the resource base is (9 trillion barrels all in) and how satisfying demand is only a question of timely investments. The oil optimists are still an important group of the IEA, but it is the new positions the organization takes which are showing us the direction they are heading: [...] [...] A Peak-Oiler, but still in the closet? IEA’s 2008 Report The groundbreaking new IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 is still a product of a somewhat schizophrenic organization. Here and there you still have references to how abundant the resource base is (9 trillion barrels all in) and how satisfying demand is only a question of timely investments. The oil optimists are still an important group of the IEA, but it is the new positions the organization takes which are showing us the direction they are heading: [...]

]]> By: DrumBeat: November 17, 2008 | The Oil Report http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-5 DrumBeat: November 17, 2008 | The Oil Report Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:10:41 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-5 [...] A Peak-Oiler, but still in the closet? IEA’s 2008 Report The groundbreaking new IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 is still a product of a somewhat schizophrenic organization. Here and there you still have references to how abundant the resource base is (9 trillion barrels all in) and how satisfying demand is only a question of timely investments. The oil optimists are still an important group of the IEA, but it is the new positions the organization takes which are showing us the direction they are heading: [...] [...] A Peak-Oiler, but still in the closet? IEA’s 2008 Report The groundbreaking new IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 is still a product of a somewhat schizophrenic organization. Here and there you still have references to how abundant the resource base is (9 trillion barrels all in) and how satisfying demand is only a question of timely investments. The oil optimists are still an important group of the IEA, but it is the new positions the organization takes which are showing us the direction they are heading: [...]

]]> By: Robert Spoley http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/11/a-peak-oiler-but-still-in-the-closet-iea/#comment-2 Robert Spoley Mon, 17 Nov 2008 18:16:44 +0000 http://www.aspo-usa.org/?p=326#comment-2 Sir, I firmly believe in "Peak Oil" and have been in oil exploration for over 43 years. The demand side of Peak Oil is always assumed to be that 1) No realistic mobile fuels will be developed that are significant in volume to slow, much arrest usage demand on petroleum fuels. I concur in this assumption. 2)World population will remain static at best or grow at the current rate of 3.5%. In this assumtion I disagree. I do not believe we will see any significant increase in the death rate (actual numbers will probably not go up much). However, I do believe that the desire of the worlds population to live a relatively comfortable life style will prevail. Thus the birth rate will eventually fall drastically, thus shrinking the demand side of the peak oil equation. When or how or where this will happen I can only hazard a guess. However most of the western world has an indigineous birth rate well below replacement rates. The third world has a fairly low life expectency but a birth rate that is off scale. Thus the growth in population is mostly from the third world and its migration into 1st world areas. I, for one, believe the first world will not allow this proceedure to go on unabated and will do any number of things to bring 3d world birth rates in line with 1st world birth rates. With the short life expectency in the third world, this will shrink world population down to a sustainable level eventually. If this does not occur in a civilized fashion, it will happen in an uncivilized fashion. Mother Nature is saying "You can pay me now, or you can pay me later". Your thoughts? Bob in Okc Sir,
I firmly believe in “Peak Oil” and have been in oil exploration for over 43 years. The demand side of Peak Oil is always assumed to be that 1) No realistic mobile fuels will be developed that are significant in volume to slow, much arrest usage demand on petroleum fuels. I concur in this assumption. 2)World population will remain static at best or grow at the current rate of 3.5%. In this assumtion I disagree. I do not believe we will see any significant increase in the death rate (actual numbers will probably not go up much). However, I do believe that the desire of the worlds population to live a relatively comfortable life style will prevail. Thus the birth rate will eventually fall drastically, thus shrinking the demand side of the peak oil equation. When or how or where this will happen I can only hazard a guess. However most of the western world has an indigineous birth rate well below replacement rates. The third world has a fairly low life expectency but a birth rate that is off scale. Thus the growth in population is mostly from the third world and its migration into 1st world areas. I, for one, believe the first world will not allow this proceedure to go on unabated and will do any number of things to bring 3d world birth rates in line with 1st world birth rates. With the short life expectency in the third world, this will shrink world population down to a sustainable level eventually. If this does not occur in a civilized fashion, it will happen in an uncivilized fashion. Mother Nature is saying “You can pay me now, or you can pay me later”. Your thoughts?

Bob in Okc

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