http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/12/gleanings-from-fatih-birols-presentation/ Energy Action for a Healthy Economy and Clean Environment Sat, 31 Jul 2010 06:01:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/12/gleanings-from-fatih-birols-presentation/#comment-85 DrumBeat: December 9, 2008 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 18:03:56 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=556#comment-85 [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations Birol’s talk was fairly dry, understated and nuanced. His slides were essentially the PR set you can download from the IEA website. He stated right up front that the Business-as-Usual reference scenario projection for energy consumption to 2030 was unsustainable. But the compelling reason he gave was because BAU would cause a 6-degree global temperature rise, not because oil supply shortfall challenges might make those levels of consumption unfeasible. [...] [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations Birol’s talk was fairly dry, understated and nuanced. His slides were essentially the PR set you can download from the IEA website. He stated right up front that the Business-as-Usual reference scenario projection for energy consumption to 2030 was unsustainable. But the compelling reason he gave was because BAU would cause a 6-degree global temperature rise, not because oil supply shortfall challenges might make those levels of consumption unfeasible. [...]

]]> http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/12/gleanings-from-fatih-birols-presentation/#comment-83 Robert Spoley Thu, 11 Dec 2008 17:19:21 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=556#comment-83 Sirs; The obvious connection here is the "production shortfall" will be required in order to forestall "global warming". This is why anthromorphic global warming is required by this crowd. If the "global warming" is a naturally ocurring event, that means governments can't control it. That includes the warming and the production shortfall. Wow!! What do ya know! What conspiracy? Sirs;
The obvious connection here is the “production shortfall” will be required in order to forestall “global warming”. This is why anthromorphic global warming is required by this crowd. If the “global warming” is a naturally ocurring event, that means governments can’t control it. That includes the warming and the production shortfall. Wow!! What do ya know! What conspiracy?

]]> http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/12/gleanings-from-fatih-birols-presentation/#comment-82 Peter Weggeman Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:05:50 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=556#comment-82 Using the IEA's new 5%/year decline rate, half of today's production will be gone in 13 years...around 2025. I believe that. I am amazed IEA believes a 6 degree C climb in global temperature is possible. First, the depletion of oil and gas will reduce emissions more effectively than man's feeble efforts (coal remains a problem). Second, thermal emission spectra of earth clearly show there is already sufficient CO2 in the atmosphere to absorb almost all of the radiation from the sun and the earth in the principle CO2 absorption bands. In other words, the atmosphere is "saturated" with CO2 as far as warming is concerned. More CO2 will make only a very small contribution to warming. Calculations predict well under 2 degrees C if CO2 is doubled. The IPCC's famous growing "radiative forcing" is incorrect. Using the IEA’s new 5%/year decline rate, half of today’s production will be gone in 13 years…around 2025. I believe that. I am amazed IEA believes a 6 degree C climb in global temperature is possible. First, the depletion of oil and gas will reduce emissions more effectively than man’s feeble efforts (coal remains a problem). Second, thermal emission spectra of earth clearly show there is already sufficient CO2 in the atmosphere to absorb almost all of the radiation from the sun and the earth in the principle CO2 absorption bands. In other words, the atmosphere is “saturated” with CO2 as far as warming is concerned. More CO2 will make only a very small contribution to warming. Calculations predict well under 2 degrees C if CO2 is doubled. The IPCC’s famous growing “radiative forcing” is incorrect.

]]> http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/12/gleanings-from-fatih-birols-presentation/#comment-81 Alternative Fuels Now » DrumBeat: December 9, 2008 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 09:43:39 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=556#comment-81 [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations Birol’s talk was fairly dry, understated and nuanced. His slides were essentially the PR set you can download from the IEA website. He stated right up front that the Business-as-Usual reference scenario projection for energy consumption to 2030 was unsustainable. But the compelling reason he gave was because BAU would cause a 6-degree global temperature rise, not because oil supply shortfall challenges might make those levels of consumption unfeasible. [...] [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations Birol’s talk was fairly dry, understated and nuanced. His slides were essentially the PR set you can download from the IEA website. He stated right up front that the Business-as-Usual reference scenario projection for energy consumption to 2030 was unsustainable. But the compelling reason he gave was because BAU would cause a 6-degree global temperature rise, not because oil supply shortfall challenges might make those levels of consumption unfeasible. [...]

]]> http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/12/gleanings-from-fatih-birols-presentation/#comment-76 Commodities Broker | DrumBeat: December 9, 2008 | Commodities Options | Commodities Futures | Commodities Prices Wed, 10 Dec 2008 07:57:10 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=556#comment-76 [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations Birol’s talk was fairly dry, understated and nuanced. His slides were essentially the PR set you can download from the IEA website. He stated right up front that the Business-as-Usual reference scenario projection for energy consumption to 2030 was unsustainable. But the compelling reason he gave was because BAU would cause a 6-degree global temperature rise, not because oil supply shortfall challenges might make those levels of consumption unfeasible. [...] [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations Birol’s talk was fairly dry, understated and nuanced. His slides were essentially the PR set you can download from the IEA website. He stated right up front that the Business-as-Usual reference scenario projection for energy consumption to 2030 was unsustainable. But the compelling reason he gave was because BAU would cause a 6-degree global temperature rise, not because oil supply shortfall challenges might make those levels of consumption unfeasible. [...]

]]> http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2008/12/gleanings-from-fatih-birols-presentation/#comment-73 cobalt » links for 2008-12-09 Wed, 10 Dec 2008 01:33:34 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=556#comment-73 [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations :: A... "Not that he short-changed supply. The IEA recently realized how critical the decline of the existing oil production base is to future oil production rates. That prompted an in-depth field-by-field study of decline rates. Birol warned that the equivalent of 4 new Saudi Arabias must come on line by 2030 just to offset expected decline, 2 more on top of that if we are to ‘grow’ production to the Reference Scenario. I’m not sure the audience fully appreciated the enormity of those statements." [...] [...] Gleanings from Fatih Birol’s presentation of the WEO 2008 to the Council on Foreign Relations :: A… "Not that he short-changed supply. The IEA recently realized how critical the decline of the existing oil production base is to future oil production rates. That prompted an in-depth field-by-field study of decline rates. Birol warned that the equivalent of 4 new Saudi Arabias must come on line by 2030 just to offset expected decline, 2 more on top of that if we are to ‘grow’ production to the Reference Scenario. I’m not sure the audience fully appreciated the enormity of those statements." [...]

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