“Between now and 2030, worldwide demand for energy will increase 50%. New sources, such as wind and solar power, are unlikely to account for more than 1% of global energy by 2030 and fossil fuels will continue to account for 80%.”

One percent and 80%? But these numbers are what we have today. So the study says, in effect, that new sources such as wind and solar will increase at the same rate as total demand. Supppose they are wrong and the world does far beter and increases them at twice their projected rate in the study? Then in 2030 we might have 2% of our energy from new sources including wind and solar and, 79% fossil fuels. But this 79% would be about 50% higher than present fossil fuel usage - if that’s possible.

The “all of the above 15″ tactics don’t seem to make much sense in the global picture.

Too many people on this planet is not just a problem. It is the problem.

Either there have been no readers of my and Spoley’s comments above, or those who have read them are so cowed to violate pc standards that they remain mute. Population is the problem. Until this is faced all other “solutions” are fatuous.

RJS in OKC

Put a link to this on my site, hope someone stops by.

-mike

Wind turbines sound practical, but we do not need more electric power as factories, offices, and commercial centers close. Electric power does not address the liquid fuels problem of moving tractors/combines and trucks. And much fossil energy is used to manufacture, transport, and maintain wind turbines. It is not just the energy used to mine, transport, and process bauxite ore, as well as the energy used to manufacture and transport the wind turbines. We must also count all of the energy used in transporting all of the workers who make the thousands of turbine parts all over the world, and all of the energy used in the factories, and the pay and dividends of all the workers and stock holders who will use oil when they spend wages and dividends on vacations, cars, boats, and housing construction etc.

Thus wind turbines use up liquid fuels (which we need) to get electric power, which we don’t need and can’t use. There is no plan nor capital for an electric economy. Heavy electric trucks can travel 40 MPH for 100 miles on a level surface and then need a 5 hour recharge. With hills this would be cut back considerably. Electric tractors/combines are not practical, as they would go an hour before needing a recharge of 5 hours. Diesel tractors run 8, 12, or 24 hours per day without stopping. Even if there were a plan for an electric economy, the infrastructure makeover would take a trillion dollars and 10 years to implement.

We need to plan for Peak Oil impacts. We know we are at Peak Oil now, according to most independent studies and what the International Energy Agency says between the lines in interviews. And we know that the alternatives are not going to make up for a significant portion of the liquid fuels gap (according to the U.S. General Accountability Office study: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf )

This is where the NAS can help, by alerting the nation, Congress, and the president about Peak Oil and the problems ahead. This is a catastrophe that requires the policy advice of NAS for the nation. Politicians will not break the bad news to the public, but the NAS would.

This is not the place for a cacophony of interest groups, bloggers, environmentalists, engineers, geologisst, academics, and energy companies to advise the president and Congress. The president and Congress will need the advice of NAS as this catastrophe unfolds. The NAS is the only source that has the necessary credibility to advise the nation on how to face this challenge:

With increasing costs for gasoline and diesel, along with declining taxes and declining gasoline tax revenues, states and local governments will eventually have to cut staff and curtail highway maintenance. Eventually, gasoline stations will close, and state and local highway workers won’t be able to get to work. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair.

When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.