Comments on: Are We In The Post-Peak Era? http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/ Truth in Energy Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:05:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Sea-Kings.net Subsea | Recruiting The Best Engineers On Earth… and Under It. http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-3526 Sea-Kings.net Subsea | Recruiting The Best Engineers On Earth… and Under It. Sun, 15 Nov 2009 05:41:58 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-3526 [...] IEA’s non-OPEC forecast out to 2011 is about the same as my own estimate published in Are We in The Post-Peak Era? on February 19, 2009 (Figure [...] [...] IEA’s non-OPEC forecast out to 2011 is about the same as my own estimate published in Are We in The Post-Peak Era? on February 19, 2009 (Figure [...]

]]> By: The Oil Situation Is Really Bad :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-3487 The Oil Situation Is Really Bad :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:55:16 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-3487 [...] IEA’s non-OPEC forecast out to 2011 is about the same as my own estimate published in Are We in The Post-Peak Era? on February 19, 2009 (Figure [...] [...] IEA’s non-OPEC forecast out to 2011 is about the same as my own estimate published in Are We in The Post-Peak Era? on February 19, 2009 (Figure [...]

]]> By: Is Business-As-Usual Likely In A Peak Oil Scenario? :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-2795 Is Business-As-Usual Likely In A Peak Oil Scenario? :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 23 Jul 2009 15:00:49 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-2795 [...] I explore assumptions about BAU scenarios under the assumption that we have now reached the peak of oil production rates or will shortly. This is the “peak oil” hypothesis. If oil production peaks in 2020 or [...] [...] I explore assumptions about BAU scenarios under the assumption that we have now reached the peak of oil production rates or will shortly. This is the “peak oil” hypothesis. If oil production peaks in 2020 or [...]

]]> By: It’s Not Black Or White :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-2723 It’s Not Black Or White :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:25:34 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-2723 [...] was the only time that all-liquids supply ever surpassed 86 million barrels-per-day, and there is a good chance that it will never exceed that level ever again (or 87, or 88, or something in the 86-88 [...] [...] was the only time that all-liquids supply ever surpassed 86 million barrels-per-day, and there is a good chance that it will never exceed that level ever again (or 87, or 88, or something in the 86-88 [...]

]]> By: Peak Oil = Peak Demand? :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-2642 Peak Oil = Peak Demand? :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Fri, 12 Jun 2009 01:36:09 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-2642 [...] is whistling past the graveyard because it is very likely that we really are in the post-peak oil era (my column, February 19, 2009). The view that non-OPEC production has peaked is now going [...] [...] is whistling past the graveyard because it is very likely that we really are in the post-peak oil era (my column, February 19, 2009). The view that non-OPEC production has peaked is now going [...]

]]> By: William Davison http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-2510 William Davison Fri, 22 May 2009 10:17:39 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-2510 Matthew Simmons still thinks production peaked in May 2005. See http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/OTC%20Topical%20Luncheon.pdf slide 14. He states "Possible Middle East surge in 2nd/3rd Quarters of 2008 has not shown up in the IEA member country imports (+1.8MMBD)." He suspects the OPEC (Saudi) oil production stats sometimes include draw down of stocks. For example I think it was in March 2008 that production surged above May 2005 record to only fall back by the same amount the next month. This new record made news as debunking Peak Oil but following months fall did not. Matthew Simmons still thinks production peaked in May 2005.

See http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/OTC%20Topical%20Luncheon.pdf slide 14.
He states “Possible Middle East surge in 2nd/3rd Quarters of 2008 has not shown up in the IEA member country imports (+1.8MMBD).”

He suspects the OPEC (Saudi) oil production stats sometimes include draw down of stocks. For example I think it was in March 2008 that production surged above May 2005 record to only fall back by the same amount the next month. This new record made news as debunking Peak Oil but following months fall did not.

]]> By: Mr. Market Gets It Wrong Again :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-2503 Mr. Market Gets It Wrong Again :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 21 May 2009 13:53:56 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-2503 [...] reflecting actual market conditions might be important to us. Regardless of whether we are in the Peak Oil Era—we probably are—in 2009, we would like to know at all times what the relative abundance of the [...] [...] reflecting actual market conditions might be important to us. Regardless of whether we are in the Peak Oil Era—we probably are—in 2009, we would like to know at all times what the relative abundance of the [...]

]]> By: bob shaw http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-729 bob shaw Fri, 20 Feb 2009 04:26:49 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-729 Hey Dave, Good writeup. Nate Hagens and others have recently commented on a recent $1 trillion+ USD forex run for the greenback. Pure Speculation ahead: China, Russia, and Chavez teaming up for a 'all-out balls-to-the-walls' push to bring the Orinoco heavy crude up-to-speed for their benefit? Sorry, no facts/corroboration, just a thought. If they can do it cheaper than the Canadian tarsands-->could potentially postPeak grab quite a bit of mercantilism pricing and political power. Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast? Hey Dave,

Good writeup. Nate Hagens and others have recently commented on a recent $1 trillion+ USD forex run for the greenback.

Pure Speculation ahead: China, Russia, and Chavez teaming up for a ‘all-out balls-to-the-walls’ push to bring the Orinoco heavy crude up-to-speed for their benefit? Sorry, no facts/corroboration, just a thought. If they can do it cheaper than the Canadian tarsands–>could potentially postPeak grab quite a bit of mercantilism pricing and political power.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

]]> By: Robert Spoley http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/02/are-we-in-the-post-peak-era/#comment-721 Robert Spoley Thu, 19 Feb 2009 20:55:06 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1022#comment-721 Sir, I'm guessing, but the lower value of the American dollar will drive foreign oil prices through the roof thus keeping the Zimbabwian State of United States of America in a perpetual state of comotosis - and thus lower demand. I think this will delay the inevitable production contraction, but not prevent it. If the Russians welch on their deal with the Chinese it could get real serious real fast. China doesn't react to Russian broken promisses the way western oil companies do. POTUS negation of lease sales on both American coasts is a stimulus package for OPEC. What can I say? Sir,
I’m guessing, but the lower value of the American dollar will drive foreign oil prices through the roof thus keeping the Zimbabwian State of United States of America in a perpetual state of comotosis - and thus lower demand. I think this will delay the inevitable production contraction, but not prevent it. If the Russians welch on their deal with the Chinese it could get real serious real fast. China doesn’t react to Russian broken promisses the way western oil companies do. POTUS negation of lease sales on both American coasts is a stimulus package for OPEC. What can I say?

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