Comments on: Steven Chu’s Energy Miscalculations http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/ Truth in Energy Thu, 09 Feb 2012 01:33:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Obama Tackles the Liquid Fuels Problem :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/#comment-2557 Obama Tackles the Liquid Fuels Problem :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 28 May 2009 13:57:04 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1193#comment-2557 [...] Increased vehicle fuel efficiency as Dr. Chu wants, starting with strengthening of the EPA/CAFE rules as described above. Efficiency is supposed to save 1.8 billion barrels of oil during the lifetime of the cars sold between 2011 and 2016. The Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that the U.S. will save 1.4 million barrels-per-day by 2020 based on the new timetable. I do not know how either of these calculations were done, including the assumptions used for real world mileage, car sales, etc. So considerable uncertainty exists about what the real savings will be. [...] [...] Increased vehicle fuel efficiency as Dr. Chu wants, starting with strengthening of the EPA/CAFE rules as described above. Efficiency is supposed to save 1.8 billion barrels of oil during the lifetime of the cars sold between 2011 and 2016. The Union of Concerned Scientists estimates that the U.S. will save 1.4 million barrels-per-day by 2020 based on the new timetable. I do not know how either of these calculations were done, including the assumptions used for real world mileage, car sales, etc. So considerable uncertainty exists about what the real savings will be. [...]

]]> By: Planes, Trains and Automobiles :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/#comment-2353 Planes, Trains and Automobiles :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 23 Apr 2009 15:46:55 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1193#comment-2353 [...] In the real world2 nothing has changed on the ground—when did smaller cars and fuel efficiency (35 average mpg by 2020) become our National Religion? Where are the plug-in hybrids? Sales for gas electric (standard) hybrids have tanked in recent months and may remain low for years to come. Despite these weak measures, dearths and unfavorable indicators, our new Energy Secretary remains fanatical when it comes to efficiency as I discussed in Steven Chu’s Energy Miscalculations. [...] [...] In the real world2 nothing has changed on the ground—when did smaller cars and fuel efficiency (35 average mpg by 2020) become our National Religion? Where are the plug-in hybrids? Sales for gas electric (standard) hybrids have tanked in recent months and may remain low for years to come. Despite these weak measures, dearths and unfavorable indicators, our new Energy Secretary remains fanatical when it comes to efficiency as I discussed in Steven Chu’s Energy Miscalculations. [...]

]]> By: The Secretary of Synthetic Biology :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/#comment-2220 The Secretary of Synthetic Biology :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:32:30 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1193#comment-2220 [...] week’s column Steven Chu’s Energy Miscalculations1 attempted to answer the question what is the plan? for dealing with potential shortfalls in the [...] [...] week’s column Steven Chu’s Energy Miscalculations1 attempted to answer the question what is the plan? for dealing with potential shortfalls in the [...]

]]> By: Hans Noeldner http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/#comment-2198 Hans Noeldner Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:55:50 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1193#comment-2198 Hi Dave: Thanks for the thorough analysis. While it's good that Chu "gets" conservation, curtailment - i.e. behavior-focused solutions - remain off limits. In forty years our descendants will ask why we failed so miserably to conserve fossil energy for a relatively humane transition. There will be many answers: "Our children needed to play soccer, and driving them to practises and games was the only way for them to do it." "We had to mow our lawns." "Our kids had to drive to school so they could participate in extra-curricular activites." "We couldn't force people to stop playing on gasoline-powered toys." "People had a right to live wherever they wanted to, in houses as large as they could afford. And that meant driving everywhere." Hi Dave:

Thanks for the thorough analysis. While it’s good that Chu “gets” conservation, curtailment - i.e. behavior-focused solutions - remain off limits.

In forty years our descendants will ask why we failed so miserably to conserve fossil energy for a relatively humane transition. There will be many answers: “Our children needed to play soccer, and driving them to practises and games was the only way for them to do it.” “We had to mow our lawns.” “Our kids had to drive to school so they could participate in extra-curricular activites.” “We couldn’t force people to stop playing on gasoline-powered toys.” “People had a right to live wherever they wanted to, in houses as large as they could afford. And that meant driving everywhere.”

]]> By: Robert Spoley http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/#comment-2197 Robert Spoley Sat, 21 Mar 2009 16:27:14 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1193#comment-2197 There are about 200 countries in the world. I estimate that, at most, 20 are self sufficient in O&G production and are "net exporters". That leaves about 180 countries that are "net importers" of O&G. Currently the US of A is the third largest producer of O&G behind Russia and Saudi Arabia and is a hugh importer of O&G. Evidently Mr.Chu thinks the US will outstrip 80% of the planet in energy production fairly soon since we have all these decades to reverse our energy imports. Why would he believe that anyone else would dare compete with us? What nerve! Obamas biggest stimulus plan so far has been to deny drilling on the east, west and Alaskan offshore coasts. That of course is a stimulus for OPEC, not sir, the US of A. By the way, Cantarell is the third largest field on the planet. Brasils new discoveries are in the 40 billion barrel range and Canada has three offshore production platforms offshore Nova Scotia. All three of these production areas are on the EAST COAST of the Americas and we are hoping for sustained winds and 24 hours of sunlight. We're doomed. There are about 200 countries in the world. I estimate that, at most, 20 are self sufficient in O&G production and are “net exporters”. That leaves about 180 countries that are “net importers” of O&G. Currently the US of A is the third largest producer of O&G behind Russia and Saudi Arabia and is a hugh importer of O&G. Evidently Mr.Chu thinks the US will outstrip 80% of the planet in energy production fairly soon since we have all these decades to reverse our energy imports. Why would he believe that anyone else would dare compete with us? What nerve! Obamas biggest stimulus plan so far has been to deny drilling on the east, west and Alaskan offshore coasts. That of course is a stimulus for OPEC, not sir, the US of A. By the way, Cantarell is the third largest field on the planet. Brasils new discoveries are in the 40 billion barrel range and Canada has three offshore production platforms offshore Nova Scotia. All three of these production areas are on the EAST COAST of the Americas and we are hoping for sustained winds and 24 hours of sunlight. We’re doomed.

]]> By: Bill http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/#comment-2196 Bill Fri, 20 Mar 2009 03:15:40 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1193#comment-2196 Thanks Dave. Very clear explanation. Guess we will have to wait for a full blown oil shortage crisis before there is enough discomfort for meaningful action. Unfortunately for me, Hirsh's worst case looks optimistic. Shortage begins, denial, finger pointing and blame, floundering, and then hopefully some meaningful action. Thanks Dave. Very clear explanation. Guess we will have to wait for a full blown oil shortage crisis before there is enough discomfort for meaningful action. Unfortunately for me, Hirsh’s worst case looks optimistic. Shortage begins, denial, finger pointing and blame, floundering, and then hopefully some meaningful action.

]]> By: Ray http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/03/steven-chus-energy-miscalculations/#comment-2195 Ray Fri, 20 Mar 2009 01:44:08 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=1193#comment-2195 Chu, et al seem to be wed to the concept of continuous economic growth. The emphasis on "efficiency" is apparently geared to getting more for less - with "more" being the key word. The fact that exponential economic growth is a fundamentally flawed objective is conveniently ignored. The only rational strategy is to reduce demand and prepare for a far less energy intensive way of life. The frantic race to find alternative sources of energy to partially replace conventional fuels misses the point; the current economic system is patently unsustainable. Obama and company, albeit with good intentions, are simply repeating the mistakes of past administrations. As per the Hirsch Report, we are running out of time. In fact, it may already be too late. Chu, et al seem to be wed to the concept of continuous economic growth. The emphasis on “efficiency” is apparently geared to getting more for less - with “more” being the key word. The fact that exponential economic growth is a fundamentally flawed objective is conveniently ignored. The only rational strategy is to reduce demand and prepare for a far less energy intensive way of life. The frantic race to find alternative sources of energy to partially replace conventional fuels misses the point; the current economic system is patently unsustainable. Obama and company, albeit with good intentions, are simply repeating the mistakes of past administrations. As per the Hirsch Report, we are running out of time. In fact, it may already be too late.

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