Comments on: The Next Oil Shock http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/ Energy Action for a Healthy Economy and Clean Environment Sat, 31 Jul 2010 06:04:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Investment Themes for the Next Decade - GetRealList http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-3739 Investment Themes for the Next Decade - GetRealList Mon, 28 Dec 2009 21:45:39 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-3739 [...] Volatility of future oil pricing. Source: Dave Cohen, “The Next Oil Shock“ [...] [...] Volatility of future oil pricing. Source: Dave Cohen, “The Next Oil Shock“ [...]

]]> By: The Aftermath of the Great Recession, Part II :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-3174 The Aftermath of the Great Recession, Part II :: ASPO-USA: Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Thu, 24 Sep 2009 17:01:15 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-3174 [...] The shape of the recovery determines future oil demand, and thus the timing of The Next Oil Shock. [...] [...] The shape of the recovery determines future oil demand, and thus the timing of The Next Oil Shock. [...]

]]> By: Bill Simpson of Slidell LA. http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2997 Bill Simpson of Slidell LA. Thu, 20 Aug 2009 10:02:50 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2997 Oil is only worth what people think that it is worth. That is the reason why it is still selling for only $70 a barrel. Think back to the 2008 price spike to $147. How many people did you hear on tv saying that the high price might be the result of world oil production about to begin a permanent decline? No, the greedy speculators were pushing up the price. The public hears the talk radio hosts spreading the myth that oil is still abundant, and that it won't run out for a hundred years. Millionaire talking heads tell the public that all we need to do to bring down the price of oil is to open up the OCS and our problems will be solved. If we can't get all the oil we want, we can get all we need from Colorado oil shale or Canadian tar sands. The vast majority of people still believe these myths to be true. Even on the so-called business cable networks, economists constantly compare oil to commodities of living things that can replicate like wheat, trees or pigs. They are never asked just how a higher price will cause a very rapid change in the biochemistry and geology of oil formation, so as to constantly replace the 83,000,000 barrels we use every day. A money induced time warp maby? Many believe that the electric car will solve any oil shortage problem. Unfortunately, lithium is not exactly a widely distributed element in high concentration. And large lithium batteries are very expensive. In short, a hyperinflationary economic collapse seems almost inevitable. Once shortages start to bid up the price, more and more dollars will be needed to pay for less and less oil. Exporting countries will soon realize that the less they produce, the more money they can make by making the shortage worse. Would you sell the only oil that you have left after you are sure that it will be worth far more in six months, because production has begun to decline forever? An orgy of dollar creation will destroy the dollar's value along with the entire financial system. Life will become very difficult. I sure hope I'm wrong, but I can't see how I am. We shall see. Good luck fellow peak oilers. Too bad we can't turn back the clock 30 years and start to prepare. Then again, noone would listen. Oil is only worth what people think that it is worth. That is the reason why it is still selling for only $70 a barrel. Think back to the 2008 price spike to $147. How many people did you hear on tv saying that the high price might be the result of world oil production about to begin a permanent decline? No, the greedy speculators were pushing up the price. The public hears the talk radio hosts spreading the myth that oil is still abundant, and that it won’t run out for a hundred years. Millionaire talking heads tell the public that all we need to do to bring down the price of oil is to open up the OCS and our problems will be solved. If we can’t get all the oil we want, we can get all we need from Colorado oil shale or Canadian tar sands. The vast majority of people still believe these myths to be true. Even on the so-called business cable networks, economists constantly compare oil to commodities of living things that can replicate like wheat, trees or pigs. They are never asked just how a higher price will cause a very rapid change in the biochemistry and geology of oil formation, so as to constantly replace the 83,000,000 barrels we use every day. A money induced time warp maby? Many believe that the electric car will solve any oil shortage problem. Unfortunately, lithium is not exactly a widely distributed element in high concentration. And large lithium batteries are very expensive. In short, a hyperinflationary economic collapse seems almost inevitable. Once shortages start to bid up the price, more and more dollars will be needed to pay for less and less oil. Exporting countries will soon realize that the less they produce, the more money they can make by making the shortage worse. Would you sell the only oil that you have left after you are sure that it will be worth far more in six months, because production has begun to decline forever? An orgy of dollar creation will destroy the dollar’s value along with the entire financial system. Life will become very difficult. I sure hope I’m wrong, but I can’t see how I am. We shall see. Good luck fellow peak oilers. Too bad we can’t turn back the clock 30 years and start to prepare. Then again, noone would listen.

]]> By: Don Hirschberg http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2985 Don Hirschberg Tue, 18 Aug 2009 06:32:58 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2985 I am inclined to agree with Peter Hunt. While ultimately geology will define the course of Peak Oil,and peak everything else,what we face today are political and military corollaries. We indeed live in interesting tiomes. I am inclined to agree with Peter Hunt. While ultimately geology will define the course of Peak Oil,and peak everything else,what we face today are political and military corollaries. We indeed live in interesting tiomes.

]]> By: Peter Hunt http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2982 Peter Hunt Mon, 17 Aug 2009 17:05:43 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2982 The next oil shock is not necessarily tied to the perceptions or reality of supply and demand. Of much higher probability is that of a military/political variance from the status quo. Let the Pakistan/India situation open up or the North Korean/Russia/Japan/Georgian/ folk destabilize and the spike in oil prices is more than a likelihood. As is pointed out the economists are not very good at saying much more than "all will be stable so long as all things remain equal" which they never do. Astonishing that supposedly intelligent people ever take them seriously. Perhaps they are just old college chums and thus claim some benign attention. I suspect the next major shift in oil supply and prices will result from non economic factors. It could happen anytime but yesterday with the "Black Swan" in the air. The next oil shock is not necessarily tied to the perceptions or reality of supply and demand. Of much higher probability is that of a military/political variance from the status quo.

Let the Pakistan/India situation open up or the North Korean/Russia/Japan/Georgian/ folk destabilize and the spike in oil prices is more than a likelihood.

As is pointed out the economists are not very good at saying much more than “all will be stable so long as all things remain equal” which they never do. Astonishing that supposedly intelligent people ever take them seriously. Perhaps they are just old college chums and thus claim some benign attention.

I suspect the next major shift in oil supply and prices will result from non economic factors. It could happen anytime but yesterday with the “Black Swan” in the air.

]]> By: The Dude http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2974 The Dude Sat, 15 Aug 2009 19:27:16 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2974 Morgan Downey cooked up a fantastic little interactive chart, where you can set a score of different factors for the X and Y - oil consumption, per capita GDP, and more - for a wide set of nations, and watch their progress from 1965 to the present. You can set it so the nations in question leave tracks, and have a progression charted out when you're finished. Fascinating stuff: <a href="http://scarcewhales.blogspot.com/2009/07/oil-demand-over-time-and-income.html" rel="nofollow">Scarce Whales: Oil Demand over Time and Income</a>. Will read those Impossible Things later on, looks juicy. These EMH types are something else - the irony compounds when you consider the mental "bubble" they live in. Morgan Downey cooked up a fantastic little interactive chart, where you can set a score of different factors for the X and Y - oil consumption, per capita GDP, and more - for a wide set of nations, and watch their progress from 1965 to the present. You can set it so the nations in question leave tracks, and have a progression charted out when you’re finished. Fascinating stuff: Scarce Whales: Oil Demand over Time and Income.

Will read those Impossible Things later on, looks juicy. These EMH types are something else - the irony compounds when you consider the mental “bubble” they live in.

]]> By: captain Rick http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2962 captain Rick Fri, 14 Aug 2009 20:20:42 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2962 I think that gradual increasing in oil above $70 a barrel is an on going shock. But a true oil shock is characterized by sudden increases over a few months. Then the price comes down. Not this time . The gradual;l upswing in prices will culminate in over a hundred dollars a barrel next year. In the new era of peak oil,I propose that the longer it takes for the price to go up the longer it will stay up. This will signify the post peak oil era.Oil will always stay very expensive.for many years to come.In order for Americans to come to grips with $4 a gallon gas, we must plan massive conservation wile we still have time before the chaos.Americans ned to pay that price for all the decades of obscene waste.Bu the good news is that we can slow down , live longer and use less oil, clean up our air and so on......... I think that gradual increasing in oil above $70 a barrel is an on going shock.
But a true oil shock is characterized by sudden increases over a few months. Then the price comes down. Not this time . The gradual;l upswing in prices will culminate in over a hundred dollars a barrel next year. In the new era of peak oil,I propose that the longer it takes for the price to go up the longer it will stay up. This will signify the post peak oil era.Oil will always stay very expensive.for many years to come.In order for Americans to come to grips with $4 a gallon gas, we must plan massive conservation wile we still have time before the chaos.Americans ned to pay that price for all the decades of obscene waste.Bu the good news is that we can slow down , live longer and use less oil, clean up our air and so on………

]]> By: Marek Kvapil http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2953 Marek Kvapil Fri, 14 Aug 2009 09:11:26 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2953 Do not understand this: "Saudi Arabia has finally reached a stated capacity of 12 million barrels-per-day (b/d)" and later there is written "On the supply side, there’s no reason to believe the Saudis will ever produce more than 10.5 million barrels-per-day" Please could you explain it to me? Thanks. Do not understand this: “Saudi Arabia has finally reached a stated capacity of 12 million barrels-per-day (b/d)” and later there is written “On the supply side, there’s no reason to believe the Saudis will ever produce more than 10.5 million barrels-per-day”

Please could you explain it to me? Thanks.

]]> By: Jason http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2952 Jason Fri, 14 Aug 2009 08:44:39 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2952 What an excellent article. Thankyou. What an excellent article. Thankyou.

]]> By: Readings | Venture Capital Bloggers Network http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/08/the-next-oil-shock/#comment-2942 Readings | Venture Capital Bloggers Network Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:21:12 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=2234#comment-2942 [...] China and the next oil shock (Source) [...] [...] China and the next oil shock (Source) [...]

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