Because, when faced with a choice between a clear and imminent predicament and an authoritative voice telling them what they want to hear, people will listen to the voice until it’s too late.

Three decades ago I was in a large crowd of people waiting for a bus to take us from a desert beach to the nearest town, 40 miles away. The crowd was double or treble normal size because the day before had been a big national holiday, bringing lots of extra visitors to the beach.

When the only scheduled bus turned up, it was already pretty full with people picked up at beaches further down the coast and it was clear a lot of folk would be left behind. People immediately began to jostle and elbow to be among the first up the bus steps.

At this point a loud, well-spoken voice rang out from the back of the crowd, in English. “Please stand back from the door. There is no need to press forward. There is plenty of room on the bus for everyone. Please stand back and you will get a seat.”

People didn’t exactly form an orderly queue but the press around the door slackened considerably, even though it was obvious that the bus couldn’t possibly accommodate everyone. The guy kept uttering his calm, authoritative assurances. Not only did people stop shoving but many of those closest to him actually stepped aside to let him through, until he’d overtaken nearly everyone in the crowd and got on to the bus steps.

He then turned to the crowd, 80% of whom would shortly be left behind, favoured them with a beaming smile and a “So long suckers!” wave, and disappeared into the bus. Mission accomplished.

It was a classic example of crowd psychology. The analogy to the IEA situation seems relevant. Interestingly, while Mr Reassuring clearly had his own interests uppermost in mind, he may also have helped more people get on to the bus. Without _someone_ appearing taking charge of the situation, the scrum to get up the steps might have got so bad that the bus driver would have had to simply drive off for safety reasons.

So the answer to the reassuring forecasts question could be simply “because they work.” The IEA strategy might be the ‘least bad option’ as well as being the preferred ‘gravy train prolonger’ for Those In Charge.

In any case, the list of countries that clearly don’t believe a word of what the IEA says gets longer every year. Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, Denmark: their energy policies are not those of countries that expect oil supply to keep up with demand for another two decades.

I’m intrigued by my own country, the UK. It really ought to know better - but you’d never know it from the Government’s incredibly slow progress on low carbon and energy security.

Lynch’s latest Op Ed actually used big projects in Iraq, Venezuela, and Nigeria as emblematic of our future flush supply! Comes complete with IED and $2000 in bribe money hidden in your sock. Ya want to sit down for a while, Mike? The Peak Oil Secret is Revealed!