Comments on: Drawing the lower and upper boundaries of future oil supply By Rembrandt Koppelaar, ASPO Netherlands http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/03/drawing-the-lower-and-upper-boundaries-of-future-oil-supply-by-rembrandt-koppelaar-aspo-netherlands/ Truth in Energy Thu, 09 Feb 2012 04:48:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Andrew MCKILLOP http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/03/drawing-the-lower-and-upper-boundaries-of-future-oil-supply-by-rembrandt-koppelaar-aspo-netherlands/#comment-3995 Andrew MCKILLOP Fri, 02 Apr 2010 18:48:52 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=3329#comment-3995 Apart from the straight line exponential rise in uncertainty on oil production capacity even to the 2010-2015 horizon, generating a huge range of possible capacity numbers, we have to include the uncertainty due to producer country response to decreasing uncertainty, or increasing certainty of the final depletion of their reserves. This becomes more sure with every barrel produced over and beyond reserve replacement. If they continue with the basic production maximizing policy, the net result is ever clearer for them. Peak Oil according to BP is an energy economic response to high priced oil rather than geological reality. For the major producer countries, multiple factors can drive a radical break with production maximizing-depletion maximizing policy. These factors include already-classic value added strategies, economic diversification, environment protection. We could or might add "green energy" but this implies very un-conventional economic strategies for optimum exploitation. Decision to cap their production capacity by the oil producers is as easy to defend as capping CO2 emissions for the oil consumers, or equally unreal, depending on your point of view Andrew McKillop Apart from the straight line exponential rise in uncertainty on oil production capacity even to the 2010-2015 horizon, generating a huge range of possible capacity numbers, we have to include the uncertainty due to producer country response to decreasing uncertainty, or increasing certainty of the final depletion of their reserves. This becomes more sure with every barrel produced over and beyond reserve replacement. If they continue with the basic production maximizing policy, the net result is ever clearer for them.

Peak Oil according to BP is an energy economic response to high priced oil rather than geological reality. For the major producer countries, multiple factors can drive a radical break with production maximizing-depletion maximizing policy. These factors include already-classic value added strategies, economic diversification, environment protection. We could or might add “green energy” but this implies very un-conventional economic strategies for optimum exploitation.

Decision to cap their production capacity by the oil producers is as easy to defend as capping CO2 emissions for the oil consumers, or equally unreal, depending on your point of view

Andrew McKillop

]]> By: Bill Simpson in Slidell http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/03/drawing-the-lower-and-upper-boundaries-of-future-oil-supply-by-rembrandt-koppelaar-aspo-netherlands/#comment-3957 Bill Simpson in Slidell Sat, 06 Mar 2010 09:11:46 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=3329#comment-3957 On Monday, March 8, at 9 P.M. Central Standard Time, the National Geographic Channel ( # 276 on DIRECTV ) is going to run a new special about 'the changes that would have to take place on Earth if there were no longer any oil.' It is called, 'Aftermath: World Without Oil.' On Monday, March 8, at 9 P.M. Central Standard Time, the National Geographic Channel ( # 276 on DIRECTV ) is going to run a new special about ‘the changes that would have to take place on Earth if there were no longer any oil.’ It is called, ‘Aftermath: World Without Oil.’

]]> By: Bill Simpson in Slidell http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/03/drawing-the-lower-and-upper-boundaries-of-future-oil-supply-by-rembrandt-koppelaar-aspo-netherlands/#comment-3952 Bill Simpson in Slidell Thu, 04 Mar 2010 08:43:15 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=3329#comment-3952 Was the head of Total wrong when he said that he thought that it would be impossible to increase world oil production much above 90 million barrels a day? Producing 30% more oil in 20 years than we produce today, seems a bit of a stretch to me. I hope that it happens for those of you who will still be around by then, but I think that the rapidly escalating cost of oil will cause very severe economic problems in half that time. The unfortunate thing is that, except for the tiny portion of the population which has studied peak oil, most people think that there is still plenty of oil left. This misconception will cause the vast majority of people to continue to purchase oil powered vehicles long after electrically powered ones are available. Until fuel becomes very expensive, it won't seem worth spending the extra money for an electric car. If you didn't think a peak oil crisis was just around the corner, why would you go electric? They cost more, and you have to plug them in all the time. You can't take them on vacation to Yellowstone. And the price of lithium is going up, after the few lithium exporting countries formed OLEC, the Organization of Lithium Exporting Countries. Rumors are circulating that they are considering a scheme whereby, in the future, they will demand ownership of all the batteries made from the lithium that they export, with lease payments having to be made for their use, or they will begin to cut off the supply of lithium. So nearly everyone will still be driving oil eaters when the oil peak suddenly becomes obvious from exploding oil prices. Add the impact of new oil extraction technology, which can drain an oil field faster, and the problem actually gets worse. Everyone is still driving oil eaters, and seemingly overnight, the oil price quadruples. Think what that extra fuel money drained from the economy will do to the demand for everything else. Aggregate demand will fall, and take with it, the millions of jobs that today service that demand. Should Washington encourage more natural gas drilling by every means possible? Yep, and fast. Was the head of Total wrong when he said that he thought that it would be impossible to increase world oil production much above 90 million barrels a day?
Producing 30% more oil in 20 years than we produce today, seems a bit of a stretch to me. I hope that it happens for those of you who will still be around by then, but I think that the rapidly escalating cost of oil will cause very severe economic problems in half that time.
The unfortunate thing is that, except for the tiny portion of the population which has studied peak oil, most people think that there is still plenty of oil left. This misconception will cause the vast majority of people to continue to purchase oil powered vehicles long after electrically powered ones are available. Until fuel becomes very expensive, it won’t seem worth spending the extra money for an electric car. If you didn’t think a peak oil crisis was just around the corner, why would you go electric? They cost more, and you have to plug them in all the time. You can’t take them on vacation to Yellowstone. And the price of lithium is going up, after the few lithium exporting countries formed OLEC, the Organization of Lithium Exporting Countries. Rumors are circulating that they are considering a scheme whereby, in the future, they will demand ownership of all the batteries made from the lithium that they export, with lease payments having to be made for their use, or they will begin to cut off the supply of lithium.
So nearly everyone will still be driving oil eaters when the oil peak suddenly becomes obvious from exploding oil prices. Add the impact of new oil extraction technology, which can drain an oil field faster, and the problem actually gets worse. Everyone is still driving oil eaters, and seemingly overnight, the oil price quadruples. Think what that extra fuel money drained from the economy will do to the demand for everything else. Aggregate demand will fall, and take with it, the millions of jobs that today service that demand.
Should Washington encourage more natural gas drilling by every means possible? Yep, and fast.

]]> By: Steven Kopits http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2010/03/drawing-the-lower-and-upper-boundaries-of-future-oil-supply-by-rembrandt-koppelaar-aspo-netherlands/#comment-3948 Steven Kopits Tue, 02 Mar 2010 16:01:06 +0000 http://www.aspousa.org/?p=3329#comment-3948 "The resulting picture gives lower and upper boundaries for production capacity between 87 million and 98 million barrels per day in 2015, and 63 million and 111 million barrels per day in 2030." These are very large ranges. The high 2030 range is well above the EIA, IEA, and most the IOC's. If that's as good as it gets guys, it's time to go back to the drawing board and do a re-work. There are no policy conclusions to be drawn of the back of forecasts so loose. “The resulting picture gives lower and upper boundaries for production capacity between 87 million and 98 million barrels per day in 2015, and 63 million and 111 million barrels per day in 2030.”

These are very large ranges. The high 2030 range is well above the EIA, IEA, and most the IOC’s. If that’s as good as it gets guys, it’s time to go back to the drawing board and do a re-work. There are no policy conclusions to be drawn of the back of forecasts so loose.

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