But there is a bigger issue: the continued reduction in cost of access to the in-situ oil sands resources that shows steady signs of continuing.

This in-situ oil, which constitute 80 % of the Canadian Sand’s oil in place are being addressed with new technologies for their extraction. The technological efforts are sequentially reducing costs and the basic energy efficiency of extraction for both “heavy oil” (that which can be pumped) and the even heavier bitumen. First, it was cyclic steam injection, then the double well steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) and now sub surface combustion with PetroBank’s Toe Heel Air Injection (THAI) and Excelsior’s Combustion Over Gravity Drainage (COGD). These latter processes promise lower costs, as well as higher yields in terms of the oil in place.

In effect, the potential technical advances promise improved economic access to a large new set of petroleum deposits world wide with much moderated environmental impacts although the climatic impact problem will still remain with consequent development and use of new liquid fuels.

Disclosure: I have invested in these in-situ technologies.