Peak Oil Data
The worldwide rate of conventional crude oil production peaked at the end of 2004, and has remained between 72 and 74 million barrels per day (mbpd) ever since. The subsequent tripling of oil prices did not bring new oil to market–a classic signal of peak oil. Oil discovery is in long-term decline, and the world has reached the point at which new drilling has failed to overcome the depletion of mature fields.
Adding natural gas liquids, biofuels, synthetic liquid fuel made from tar sands, and other unconventional liquids to conventional crude brings the current “all liquids” total to about 86 mbpd. Unconventional liquids have been responsible for nearly all of the growth in world “oil” production since 2005.
The world has reached a “bumpy plateau” in production, as shown in the following chart.
Source: Oilwatch Monthly, April 2010
A detailed review of the flow rates of the world’s oil producers tells us that world production may not ever exceed 90 mbpd. It appears we are now on the peak oil plateau, or close enough to it that the date of the technical, absolute peak doesn’t matter.
The global peak of all liquids will likely occur by 2015 at 95 mbpd or less, but it will only be visible in the rear-view mirror. It does not matter much if the 2015 date is off by a few years in either direction.
As ASPO founder Colin Campbell has said, “Arguing endlessly over the precise date of the peak also rather misses the point, when what matters is the vision of the long slope that comes into sight on the other side of it.”
The following chart shows Campbell’s 2009 model of past and future oil production. This model is based upon a detailed study of all the world’s major oil fields, with all forms of petroleum taken into account.
Colin Campbell’s World Oil Production Model
Source: ASPO-Ireland Newsletter No. 100 – April 2009
Learn More
Production and Peak Dates by Country
See also
Rembrandt Koppelaar’s Oilwatch Monthly
EIA’s International Energy Statistics
ASPO International’s collection of oil statistics
