Marshall Adkins, Managing Director, Energy Equity Research, Raymond James
Global oil production peaked in 2008, and I think that as you scale back activity around the world, both because of low prices and the credit crunch, you going to see particularly the non-OPEC supply fall dramatically in 2010 and 2011…Crude supplies are going to fall, and the economy will rebound and new demand will kick in at about the same time that supplies are falling. So when I look at crude
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US Imports
In recent years, the US has been importing roughly 400 million barrels of oil and products each month. The monthly totals have ranged between 450 million barrels and 340 million depending on shipping schedules, demand, and weather - particularly hurricanes. Roughly half of these 400 million barrels have come from four countries - Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Nigeria. Imports from three of those countries
Production and Prices
Starting the week at $68 a barrel, oil traded as high as $73 before closing out the week at $72.04. Once again the increase was mostly based on financial developments - a falling dollar, fears of inflation, and hopes for an economic rebound. However, the IEA did reduce its estimate of how much demand will fall in 2009 by 120,000 b/d, US crude inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels, and China reported
China
While the OECD’s economies continue to stagnate, the situation in China is less clear. Chinese exports, which had been the mainstay of the economy, are now down by 26 percent from last year. To counter this drop, the government has launched a 1-year $700 billion stimulus package that is aimed at strengthening the country’s infrastructure and keeping people at work. Last week the government
